"What's it all for?" The Psychology of Oracles:Placebo Effects and Their Power
Anyone engaging with oracles inevitably faces the question, "What's it all for?" For decades, the often surprisingly accurate and helpful answers of the I Ching and the T'ai Hsüan Ching have both fascinated and made me doubt: How can rationally unexplainable answers have such a striking "hit rate"? Or can oracles be explained scientifically?
Despite a certain skepticism, in difficult phases of life, I never stopped consulting the I Ching, and for about ten years, also the T'ai Hsüan Ching – often referred to as the "younger sister" of the I Ching. Somehow, I intuitively felt there was "something to it." My interest was naturally strengthened by the fondness of astute minds for these ancient oracles. Personalities like Carl Gustav Jung, Hermann Hesse, Bob Dylan, Richard Wilhelm, and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz have intensively engaged with the I Ching, which only fueled my own curiosity.
The Power of the Placebo Effect: How the placebo effect and the nocebo effect influence the perception of oracle answers.
At the latest, since the work of Park and Covi (1965), we know: a substance can have an effect, even if it cannot be scientifically explained but is definitely demonstrable and reproducible. Patients experienced symptom relief even after receiving sugar pills instead of actual medication – the Placebo Effect!
Why shouldn't oracle answers have a similar placebo function? This could explain why they can be helpful, even if their origin doesn't stand up to scientific scrutiny. This explanation, while soothing my doubts, didn't entirely resolve them, as I was aware of the "placebo" nature and the lack of scientific foundation.
Open-Label Placebos: The Surprise of Open Efficacy
The decisive liberation came in 2021 through an article on open-label placebos (OLP) in www.nature.com/scientificreports. The essence of the open-label placebo studies evaluated there in 2008 was that placebos are effective even when patients know they are not receiving "real" medication. (A phenomenon already recognized by Park and Covi in 1965 but not further pursued.)
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The analogy between oracle answers and placebos holds true, as both phenomena utilize similar mechanisms:
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- Positive Expectation: When consulting an oracle, you hope for a solution, guidance, or confirmation. This positive expectation can – similar to OLP – influence the subjective perception of success or relief.
- Activation of Own Resources: The oracle's advice itself may not have a "magical" effect, but engaging with it and following its recommendation can stimulate the seeker to activate their own problem-solving abilities, become more active, or change their perspective. Analogously, an OLP can trigger the body's self-healing powers.
- Reduction of Uncertainty and Anxiety: Both an oracle and an OLP can provide a sense of control or security in uncertain or anxious situations. The feeling of "doing something" or "having a plan" reduces stress and positively influences well-being and problem-solving.
- "Treatment Ritual" Effect: The ritual of consulting an oracle or receiving advice – often in a special atmosphere or from a respected person – can, similar to the ritual of taking a pill with OLP, exert an effect independent of the content. Here, C.G. Jung errs if he assumes it is irrelevant whether the I Ching is consulted by tossing coins or yarrow stalks. Likewise, the simple but comprehensive divination method of the language game, protected in our book edition of The T'ai Hsüan Ching, will contribute to success.
The True Value of the Oracle: A Catalyst for Your Self-Efficacy
- When Belief Moves Mountains.
In summary, one should not expect objective correctness or concrete predictive power from the oracle's advice. But why do oracles work? The "content" – as with OLP – is "empty" in terms of a direct, causal effect from external sources. However, one can rely on the fact that following the advice can have positive subjective effects.
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These arise from the activation of inner psychological and physiological processes, the reduction of stress and uncertainty, the refocusing of attention, and the influence on one's own expectations and perception. It is therefore not about the truthfulness of the advice, but about the power of belief and the readiness to act triggered by the advice. The oracle functions as a
catalyst for the seeker's self-efficacy.
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This is comparable to the view attributed to C.G. Jung under the heading "CHANCE" on our website, that it is not about denying chance, but about seeing it as a potential bridge to a meaningful dimension of life.
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The Other Side of the Coin: The Nocebo Effect and How to Counter It
​The more convinced I became of the efficacy of an oracle's answer, the more aware I also became of the associated dangers, which should by no means be concealed. In contrast to the placebo effect, where positive expectations lead to an improvement in symptoms, the term "negative placebos" – better known as the Nocebo Effect – describes the phenomenon that negative expectations or fears can trigger negative physical reactions or a worsening of symptoms, even if the administered substance or measure itself is ineffective or neutral. The word "Nocebo" comes from Latin and means "I shall harm" – in contrast to "Placebo," which means "I shall please".
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The Nocebo effect is based on similar psychological and neurobiological mechanisms as the placebo effect, but with reversed signs. The most well-known nocebo effect examples are Voodoo deaths: Although extreme and culturally specific, reports of people who actually became ill or even died after a Voodoo curse or similar negative suggestion are sometimes cited as drastic examples of the Nocebo effect, because their firm belief in the negative effect influenced their bodies so strongly. The Nocebo effect is thus the flip side of the placebo effect and shows how powerful human expectation and belief in one's own health or illness can be.
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Since nocebo oracle answers are fundamentally possible, we must seriously consider what we can do about it.
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Strategies Against the Nocebo Effect in Oracle Answers
1. Create Awareness: Knowing that negative expectations can trigger physical and psychological reactions is a crucial first step. If you understand that your negative feelings or symptoms might be due to your own expectations, you can manage them better. View an oracle answer as an interpretation and a thought-starter, not an unchangeable fact.
This answer was given by “The Young I Ching” to a question about the OLP effect and shows how oracles can act as catalysts. This presentation, together with a breathtaking work of art by Gong Xian, comes from the book accompanying the app.
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2. Strengthen Self-Efficacy: Remind yourself that you are in control of your own life. Your decisions and actions significantly influence your future. An oracle answer is not an unavoidable destiny, but merely a hint.
3. Do Not Repeat Negative Information: Avoid dwelling on or repeatedly bringing up an unfavorable oracle answer. Instead, consciously focus on new, positive impressions and information.
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Despite its potential pitfalls, an unfavorable oracle answer is by no means a judgment of fate. Let us consider the oracle as a guidepost signaling us to "steer our ship into safer waters". It invites us to reconsider our current direction and proactively make adjustments. In this sense, a negative answer could even be more valuable than a positive one, as it encourages us to make the necessary course correction in life.
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